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Oldham vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Oldham

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Accrington

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 55.2% 1.81 -20.5%

Draw 32.1% 27.4% 3.65 +17.2%

Away win 24.0% 24.4% 4.10 -1.6%

Over 2.5 38.2% 55.6% 1.80 -31.2%

Over 3.5 18.4% 33.3% 3.00 -44.8%

BTTS 45.5% 59.9% 1.67 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oldham1.3

Accrington0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OLDHAM · PPG 1.59

ACCRINGTON · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Oldham (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -20.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +17.2%

Accrington (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldham face Accrington in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldham a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Accrington 24%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oldham and 0.9 for Accrington (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldham are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.95 for Accrington. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Oldham vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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