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Oldham vs Accrington Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two logo England flag England - League Two Regular Season - 46 Boundary Park· Oldham Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00
Oldham logo Oldham PPG 1.59
3-0 MISS
Accrington logo Accrington PPG 0.95
Draw· +17.2% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldham face Accrington in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldham a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Accrington 24%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oldham and 0.9 for Accrington (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldham are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.95 for Accrington. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.9%
Odds: 1.81 EV: -20.5%
Draw 32.1%
Odds: 3.65 EV: +17.2%
Away 24.0%
Odds: 4.10 EV: -1.6%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.2% Odds: 1.80 -31.2%
Over 3.5 18.4% Odds: 3.00 -44.8%
BTTS 45.5% Odds: 1.67 -24.0%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Oldham
1.31
Accrington
0.91

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 51%
BTTS/No 61%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -16.4%
Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.95)

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