Today / England - League Two / Cheltenham vs Colchester Utd

Cheltenham vs Colchester Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Cheltenham

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Colchester Utd

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.9%0-27.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.5%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Draw 30.8% 29.0% 3.45 +6.3%

Away win 38.0% 45.9% 2.18 -17.2%

Over 2.5 45.5% 51.8% 1.93 -12.2%

Over 3.5 24.2% 29.9% 3.35 -18.9%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheltenham1.2

Colchester Utd1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELTENHAM · PPG 1.41

COLCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Cheltenham (H) 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +6.3%

Colchester Utd (A) 38.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheltenham face Colchester Utd in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheltenham a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Colchester Utd 38%, so Colchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cheltenham and 1.3 for Colchester Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheltenham are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.23 for Colchester Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Cheltenham vs Colchester Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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