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Crewe Alexandra vs Cambridge Utd Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two logo England flag England - League Two Regular Season - 46 Alexandra Stadium· Crewe Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00
Crewe Alexandra logo Crewe Alexandra PPG 1.82
0-0 HIT CS2
Cambridge Utd logo Cambridge Utd PPG 1.36
Home· +100.3% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Crewe Alexandra face Cambridge Utd in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe Alexandra a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Cambridge Utd 37%, so Cambridge Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.2 for Cambridge Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe Alexandra are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.36 for Cambridge Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +100.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.3%
Odds: 6.40 EV: +100.3%
Draw 31.8%
Odds: 3.95 EV: +25.6%
Away 36.9%
Odds: 1.52 EV: -43.9%
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.1% Odds: 1.95 -17.9%
Over 3.5 21.4% Odds: 3.40 -27.2%
BTTS 49.9% Odds: 1.95 -2.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 0-1
4th 1-0
5th 1-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Crewe Alexandra
1.13
Cambridge Utd
1.24

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 51%
BTTS/No 61%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -16.4%
Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

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