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Crewe Alexandra vs Cambridge Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Crewe Alexandra

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Cambridge Utd

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-111.7%0-27.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-17.4%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 15.6% 6.40 +100.3%

Draw 31.8% 25.3% 3.95 +25.6%

Away win 36.9% 65.8% 1.52 -43.9%

Over 2.5 42.1% 51.3% 1.95 -17.9%

Over 3.5 21.4% 29.4% 3.40 -27.2%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crewe Alexandra1.1

Cambridge Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CREWE ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.82

CAMBRIDGE UTD · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.82) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Crewe Alexandra (H) 31.3%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +100.3%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +25.6%

Cambridge Utd (A) 36.9%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crewe Alexandra face Cambridge Utd in England - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe Alexandra a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Cambridge Utd 37%, so Cambridge Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.2 for Cambridge Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe Alexandra are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.36 for Cambridge Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +100.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Crewe Alexandra vs Cambridge Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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