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Akron vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Akron

PPG 0.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.1%0-25.6%0-34.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.7%1-18.0%1-28.8%1-36.4%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.9%2-35.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.5%3-13.3%3-23.6%3-32.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 23.5% 4.25 +18.1%

Draw 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -13.9%

Away win 51.7% 55.9% 1.79 -7.5%

Over 2.5 72.4% 67.1% 1.49 +7.9%

Over 3.5 51.7% 42.7% 2.34 +21.0%

BTTS 70.3% 66.7% 1.50 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.3%

A 52% / xG 1.6-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akron1.6

Dinamo Moscow2.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AKRON · PPG 0.82

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Akron (H) 27.8%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +18.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.9%

Dinamo Moscow (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akron face Dinamo Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akron a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Dinamo Moscow 52%, so Dinamo Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Akron and 2.2 for Dinamo Moscow (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akron are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.36 for Dinamo Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.0%.

Akron vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions