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Cheltenham vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 29 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Cheltenham

PPG 1.32 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gillingham

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.5%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.0%1-110.9%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.8%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 41.0% 2.44 +9.8%

Draw 23.8% 30.8% 3.25 -22.7%

Away win 31.2% 35.0% 2.86 -10.8%

Over 2.5 58.6% 47.6% 2.10 +23.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 26.7% 3.75 +35.8%

BTTS 60.5% 56.5% 1.77 +7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.4%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cheltenham1.7

Gillingham1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELTENHAM · PPG 1.32

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

Cheltenham (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.7%

Gillingham (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cheltenham face Gillingham in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cheltenham a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Gillingham 31%, so Cheltenham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cheltenham and 1.4 for Gillingham (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cheltenham are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.05 for Gillingham. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Cheltenham vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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