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Barrow vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 29 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:45

Barrow

PPG 0.80 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Oldham

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+17.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-115.4%0-212.0%0-36.2%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.8%2-14.4%2-23.4%2-31.8%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 28.6% 3.50 -36.6%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Away win 56.5% 48.1% 2.08 +17.5%

Over 2.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

Over 3.5 20.5% 26.0% 3.85 -21.1%

BTTS 42.0% 54.6% 1.83 -23.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob42.0%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.6 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 0–2 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrow0.8

Oldham1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARROW · PPG 0.80

OLDHAM · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Barrow (H) 18.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -36.6%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Oldham (A) 56.5%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrow face Oldham in England - League Two on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrow a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Oldham 56%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Barrow and 1.6 for Oldham (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrow are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.43 for Oldham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Barrow vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League Two Predictions