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Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Ümraniyespor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Esenler Erokspor

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-113.0%0-27.1%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.4%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.4%2-17.0%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.2%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 29.9% 3.35 +11.6%

Draw 32.4% 29.4% 3.40 +10.2%

Away win 34.2% 51.3% 1.95 -33.3%

Over 2.5 41.6% 55.6% 1.80 -25.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 33.3% 3.00 -22.9%

BTTS 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.3% 51.8% 1.93 -31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ümraniyespor1.0

Esenler Erokspor1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ÜMRANIYESPOR · PPG 1.40

ESENLER EROKSPOR · PPG 1.66

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ümraniyespor (H) 33.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +11.6%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +10.2%

Esenler Erokspor (A) 34.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ümraniyespor face Esenler Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ümraniyespor a 33% chance, the draw 32% and Esenler Erokspor 34%, so Esenler Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ümraniyespor and 1.1 for Esenler Erokspor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ümraniyespor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.66 for Esenler Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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