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Sarıyer vs Pendikspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:00

Sarıyer

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pendikspor

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.3%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-111.1%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Draw 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 25.6% 33.3% 3.00 -13.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 29.0% 3.45 +25.6%

BTTS 57.1% 57.8% 1.73 -1.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.1%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarıyer1.8

Pendikspor1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SARIYER · PPG 1.61

PENDIKSPOR · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarıyer (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +8.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Pendikspor (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarıyer face Pendikspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarıyer a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Pendikspor 26%, so Sarıyer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sarıyer and 1.1 for Pendikspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarıyer are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.43 for Pendikspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Sarıyer vs Pendikspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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