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Iğdır FK vs Manisa F.K. Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Iğdır FK

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLW ·

UPCOMING

Manisa F.K.

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.3%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.3%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 48.8% 2.05 -10.0%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -6.6%

Away win 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Iğdır FK1.5

Manisa F.K.1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IĞDIR FK · PPG 1.44

MANISA F.K. · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Iğdır FK (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.6%

Manisa F.K. (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Iğdır FK face Manisa F.K. in Turkey - 1. Lig on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Iğdır FK a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Manisa F.K. 30%, so Iğdır FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Iğdır FK and 1.1 for Manisa F.K. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Iğdır FK are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.41 for Manisa F.K.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Iğdır FK vs Manisa F.K. Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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