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Bodrum FK vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 17:00

Bodrum FK

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

UPCOMING

Esenler Erokspor

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.7%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 35.7% 2.80 +21.0%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 29.1% 40.0% 2.50 -16.4%

Over 2.5 43.8% 48.8% 2.05 -10.2%

Over 3.5 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

BTTS 49.9% 57.1% 1.75 -12.7%

Home O1.5 34.3% 36.4% 2.75 -5.7%

Away O1.5 29.5% 38.2% 2.62 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodrum FK1.2

Esenler Erokspor1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BODRUM FK · PPG 1.47

ESENLER EROKSPOR · PPG 1.57

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bodrum FK (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +21.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Esenler Erokspor (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodrum FK face Esenler Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodrum FK a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Esenler Erokspor 29%, so Bodrum FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bodrum FK and 1.0 for Esenler Erokspor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodrum FK are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.57 for Esenler Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Bodrum FK vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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