Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Manisa F.K. vs Bodrum FK

Manisa F.K. vs Bodrum FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Manisa F.K.

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Bodrum FK

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.3%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.0%1-110.2%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 23.7% 33.9% 2.95 -18.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

BTTS 59.9% 59.9% 1.67 +0.0%

Home O1.5 56.3% 47.6% 2.10 +18.2%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manisa F.K.1.9

Bodrum FK1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MANISA F.K. · PPG 1.96

BODRUM FK · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Manisa F.K. (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Bodrum FK (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manisa F.K. face Bodrum FK in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manisa F.K. a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Bodrum FK 24%, so Manisa F.K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Manisa F.K. and 1.1 for Bodrum FK (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manisa F.K. are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.34 for Bodrum FK. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +51.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Manisa F.K. vs Bodrum FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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