Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Sivasspor vs Manisa F.K.

Sivasspor vs Manisa F.K. Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:30

Sivasspor

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDL ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Manisa F.K.

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.7%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.7%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 51.3% 1.95 -29.8%

Draw 27.1% 29.0% 3.45 -3.9%

Away win 37.0% 30.3% 3.30 +22.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 51.8% 1.93 -28.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 0–1 9.7%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sivasspor1.3

Manisa F.K.1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SIVASSPOR · PPG 1.49

MANISA F.K. · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sivasspor (H) 36.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -29.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.9%

Manisa F.K. (A) 37.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sivasspor face Manisa F.K. in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sivasspor a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Manisa F.K. 37%, so Manisa F.K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sivasspor and 1.2 for Manisa F.K. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sivasspor are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.48 for Manisa F.K.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Sivasspor vs Manisa F.K. Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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