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Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

Pendikspor

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bandırmaspor

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.9%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.8%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 51.3% 1.95 -25.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 34.9% 29.9% 3.35 +16.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 29.8% 31.3% 3.20 -2.8%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 51.3% 1.95 -27.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pendikspor1.3

Bandırmaspor1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PENDIKSPOR · PPG 1.63

BANDIRMASPOR · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pendikspor (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -25.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Bandırmaspor (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pendikspor face Bandırmaspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pendikspor a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Bandırmaspor 35%, so Pendikspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pendikspor and 1.1 for Bandırmaspor (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pendikspor are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.23 for Bandırmaspor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Pendikspor vs Bandırmaspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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