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Bandırmaspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Bandırmaspor

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Keçiörengücü

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.1%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.1%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 38.5% 2.60 +38.3%

Draw 22.9% 33.3% 3.00 -18.8%

Away win 23.9% 38.2% 2.62 -22.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 48.8% 2.05 +22.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 28.6% 3.50 +28.1%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 54.9% 40.0% 2.50 +37.3%

Away O1.5 33.9% 40.0% 2.50 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bandırmaspor2.0

Keçiörengücü1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BANDIRMASPOR · PPG 2.02

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bandırmaspor (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +38.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.8%

Keçiörengücü (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bandırmaspor face Keçiörengücü in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bandırmaspor a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Keçiörengücü 24%, so Bandırmaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bandırmaspor and 1.1 for Keçiörengücü (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bandırmaspor are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.14 for Keçiörengücü. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Bandırmaspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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