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Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Vanspor FK

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWD ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

İstanbulspor

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.8%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.1%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 31.3% 3.20 +46.9%

Draw 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 29.4% 46.5% 2.15 -22.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 36.4% 2.75 -10.1%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 48.0% 36.4% 2.75 +32.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 54.6% 1.83 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vanspor FK1.7

İstanbulspor1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VANSPOR FK · PPG 1.23

İSTANBULSPOR · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vanspor FK (H) 45.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +46.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

İstanbulspor (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vanspor FK face İstanbulspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vanspor FK a 46% chance, the draw 25% and İstanbulspor 29%, so Vanspor FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vanspor FK and 1.2 for İstanbulspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vanspor FK are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.21 for İstanbulspor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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