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Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Esenler Erokspor

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Iğdır FK

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.5%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-111.9%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.0%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 56.5% 1.77 -13.3%

Draw 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Away win 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 49% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esenler Erokspor1.6

Iğdır FK0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESENLER EROKSPOR · PPG 1.61

IĞDIR FK · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Esenler Erokspor (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -13.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

Iğdır FK (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esenler Erokspor face Iğdır FK in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Iğdır FK 24%, so Esenler Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Esenler Erokspor and 0.9 for Iğdır FK (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esenler Erokspor are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.12 for Iğdır FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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