Leagues / SWITZERLAND / 1. Liga Promotion
1. Liga Promotion
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 67 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.7%
1X2
36/67
70.1%
O/U 2.5
47/67
59.7%
BTTS
40/67
32.8%
Exact score
22/67
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
49
Settled
69.4%
Hit rate
34/49
1.41
Avg odds
-3.6%
ROI
-1.8u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=33 75.8% HIT · AVG 1.36 · +2.6% ROI
BTTS · N=9 44.4% HIT · AVG 1.44 · -38.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.62 · +7.7% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.56 · +56.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.62 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.42 · +42.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+38.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
8
Bets
63%
Hit
-17.4%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
19
Bets
63%
Hit
-7.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
20
Bets
75%
Hit
+1.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 12 HIT · 3 MISS
30 MAY Grand-Saconnex vs FC Zurich B Over 2.5 3–2 HIT30 MAY Luzern B vs Bulle HO1.5 2–3 HIT30 MAY Vevey Sports vs Paradiso AO1.5 0–2 HIT30 MAY Kriens vs Bavois HO1.5 2–1 HIT30 MAY Lausanne B vs Schaffhausen Over 2.5 2–1 HIT30 MAY Cham vs Biel-Bienne Over 2.5 -9% 3–2 HIT30 MAY Bruhl vs Basel B HO1.5 1–0 MISS30 MAY Breitenrain vs BSC Y. Boys B BTTS -12% 3–0 MISS30 MAY Kreuzlingen vs Lugano B Over 2.5 1–1 MISS23 MAY Paradiso vs Breitenrain Over 2.5 +1% 4–0 HIT23 MAY Schaffhausen vs Grand-Saconnex Over 2.5 3–0 HIT23 MAY Lugano B vs Lausanne B BTTS -17% 2–2 HIT23 MAY Bavois vs Cham Over 2.5 -9% 3–2 HIT23 MAY Basel B vs Vevey Sports Over 2.5 -16% 3–0 HIT23 MAY FC Zurich B vs Luzern B Over 2.5 -1% 2–3 HIT