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Bavois vs Brühl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Brühl

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.5%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.3%1-110.7%1-27.9%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.3%3-14.9%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 38.2% 2.62 +11.1%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Away win 33.9% 44.4% 2.25 -23.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 74.1% 1.35 -19.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 51.0% 1.96 -28.3%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 58.8% 1.70 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois1.7

Brühl1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.66

BRÜHL · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +11.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

Brühl (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Brühl in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Brühl 34%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bavois and 1.5 for Brühl (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.80 for Brühl. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Bavois vs Brühl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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