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Young Boys II vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Young Boys II

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern II

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.2%1-16.0%1-25.5%1-33.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.4%3-16.2%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-17.0%4+-26.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 72.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.0% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 56.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 2–2✓ 6.9%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Young Boys II2.5

Luzern II1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YOUNG BOYS II · PPG 1.77

LUZERN II · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Young Boys II (H) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luzern II (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Young Boys II face Luzern II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Young Boys II a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Luzern II 29%, so Young Boys II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Young Boys II and 1.8 for Luzern II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Young Boys II are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.21 for Luzern II. This match finished 2-2.

Young Boys II vs Luzern II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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