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Paradiso vs Kreuzlingen Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Paradiso

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kreuzlingen

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.7%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.4%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 24.4% 23.1% 4.33 +3.4%

Over 2.5 62.6% 61.7% 1.62 +1.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 43.5% 2.30 -9.4%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 56.6% 64.1% 1.56 -11.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 35.2% 2.84 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paradiso2.0

Kreuzlingen1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PARADISO · PPG 0.92

KREUZLINGEN · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paradiso (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Kreuzlingen (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paradiso face Kreuzlingen in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paradiso a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Kreuzlingen 24%, so Paradiso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Paradiso and 1.2 for Kreuzlingen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paradiso are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.95 for Kreuzlingen. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Paradiso vs Kreuzlingen Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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