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Luzern II vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Luzern II

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bulle

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.6%0-22.7%0-31.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-02.9%1-16.0%1-26.2%1-34.3%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.6%3-15.3%3-25.5%3-33.8%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.3%4+-25.5%4+-33.8%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 38.2% 2.62 +15.0%

Draw 21.4% 27.8% 3.60 -13.8%

Away win 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

Over 2.5 71.8% 78.1% 1.28 -8.1%

Over 3.5 48.4% 62.5% 1.60 -22.6%

BTTS 69.1% 80.0% 1.25 -13.6%

Home O1.5 65.1% 62.9% 1.59 +3.5%

Away O1.5 55.7% 67.6% 1.48 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

H 44% / xG 2.3-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern II2.3

Bulle2.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN II · PPG 1.23

BULLE · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Luzern II (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +15.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.8%

Bulle (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern II face Bulle in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern II a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Bulle 35%, so Luzern II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Luzern II and 2.1 for Bulle (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern II are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.52 for Bulle. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Luzern II vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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