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Lugano II vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Lugano II

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bavois

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.4%0-24.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.3%1-19.3%1-28.2%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.6%3-24.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 27.8% 3.60 +34.3%

Draw 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Away win 40.8% 57.1% 1.75 -28.6%

Over 2.5 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Over 3.5 43.3% 51.5% 1.94 -16.0%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.0% 2.22 +8.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 68.0% 1.47 -29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano II1.7

Bavois1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO II · PPG 1.38

BAVOIS · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lugano II (H) 37.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +34.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

Bavois (A) 40.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano II face Bavois in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano II a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Bavois 41%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lugano II and 1.8 for Bavois (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano II are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.40 for Bavois. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Lugano II vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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