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Biel-Bienne vs Lugano II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Biel-Bienne

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lugano II

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.62 for Home, form 2.18 vs 0.98 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.4%1-12.9%1-21.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.6%2-15.7%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-17.3%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-119.3%4+-211.9%4+-34.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.8% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 13.9% — — —

Over 2.5 76.0% — — —

Over 3.5 55.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 78.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 3.5%

#4 3–0 5.9%

#5 1–1 2.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Biel-Bienne3.8

Lugano II1.2

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BIEL-BIENNE · PPG 2.18

LUGANO II · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.62 for Home, form 2.18 vs 0.98 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Biel-Bienne (H) 70.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lugano II (A) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Biel-Bienne face Lugano II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Biel-Bienne a 71% chance, the draw 15% and Lugano II 14%, so Biel-Bienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Biel-Bienne and 1.2 for Lugano II (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Biel-Bienne are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.98 for Lugano II. This match finished 5-2.

Biel-Bienne vs Lugano II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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