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Basel II vs Zürich II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Basel II

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zürich II

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.6%0-23.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.4%1-19.2%1-26.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.3%3-16.2%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.9%4+-23.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 55.5% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basel II2.0

Zürich II1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BASEL II · PPG 1.49

ZÜRICH II · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Basel II (H) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zürich II (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Basel II face Zürich II in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basel II a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Zürich II 30%, so Basel II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Basel II and 1.4 for Zürich II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basel II are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.40 for Zürich II. This match finished 2-3.

Basel II vs Zürich II Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion Predictions