NB II
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 31 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
48.4%
1X2
15/31
67.7%
O/U 2.5
21/31
45.2%
BTTS
14/31
54.8%
Exact score
17/31
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
23
Settled
43.5%
Hit rate
10/23
1.66
Avg odds
-29.1%
ROI
-6.7u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=15 46.7% HIT · AVG 1.75 · -18.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.37 · -52.2% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -45.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Solid
4
Bets
75%
Hit
+6.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-15.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
17
Bets
35%
Hit
-39.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 6 HIT · 7 MISS
17 MAY Vasas vs Ajka Home -32% 2–1 HIT17 MAY Szeged vs Csakvari BTTS -10% 0–1 MISS17 MAY Soroksar vs Kecskemeti TE BTTS -0% 3–0 MISS17 MAY Mezokovesd vs Bekescsaba Home -2% 0–1 MISS17 MAY Kozarmisleny vs Karcag SE — NO PICK 2–1 —17 MAY Tiszakecske vs Szentlorinc BTTS -16% 1–2 HIT10 MAY Kecskemeti TE vs Mezokovesd BTTS -0% 2–1 HIT10 MAY Karcag SE vs Tiszakecske BTTS -8% 0–1 MISS10 MAY Budafoki vs BVSC BTTS -6% 1–1 HIT10 MAY Ajka vs Szeged — NO PICK 0–3 —10 MAY Csakvari vs Soroksar Over 2.5 +4% 1–0 MISS10 MAY Bekescsaba vs Kozarmisleny BTTS -8% 1–2 HIT4 MAY Vasas vs Budafoki Home -23% 3–2 HIT3 MAY Mezokovesd vs Csakvari BTTS -9% 1–0 MISS3 MAY Karcag SE vs Szentlorinc BTTS -11% 0–1 MISS