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Szentlőrinc SE vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

Szentlőrinc SE

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ajka

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.8%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.9%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 44.4% 2.25 -2.1%

Draw 27.0% 35.7% 2.80 -14.6%

Away win 29.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.6% 3.76 +4.8%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

Away O1.5 32.7% 34.1% 2.93 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Szentlőrinc SE1.3

Ajka1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SZENTLŐRINC SE · PPG 1.72

AJKA · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Szentlőrinc SE (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.6%

Ajka (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Szentlőrinc SE face Ajka in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Szentlőrinc SE a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Ajka 30%, so Szentlőrinc SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Szentlőrinc SE and 1.1 for Ajka (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Szentlőrinc SE are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.22 for Ajka. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Szentlőrinc SE vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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