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Fehérvár FC vs Mezokovesd-zsory Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Fehérvár FC

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mezokovesd-zsory

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 44.8% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.2%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 52.4% 1.91 -7.4%

Draw 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

Away win 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 27.5% 25.8% 3.88 +4.0%

BTTS 49.1% 54.1% 1.85 -9.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Away O1.5 22.5% 27.9% 3.58 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fehérvár FC1.5

Mezokovesd-zsory0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FEHÉRVÁR FC · PPG 1.94

MEZOKOVESD-ZSORY · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fehérvár FC (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -7.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.4%

Mezokovesd-zsory (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fehérvár FC face Mezokovesd-zsory in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fehérvár FC a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Mezokovesd-zsory 25%, so Fehérvár FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fehérvár FC and 0.8 for Mezokovesd-zsory (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fehérvár FC are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Mezokovesd-zsory. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Fehérvár FC vs Mezokovesd-zsory Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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