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Soroksar vs Szentlőrinc SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Soroksar

PPG 1.98 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Szentlőrinc SE

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.2%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Draw 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.8%

Away win 23.2% 29.4% 3.40 -12.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.1% 2.08 +4.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

BTTS 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 50.5% 1.98 -20.8%

Away O1.5 22.6% 32.3% 3.10 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Soroksar1.5

Szentlőrinc SE0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SOROKSAR · PPG 1.98

SZENTLŐRINC SE · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Soroksar (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.8%

Szentlőrinc SE (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Soroksar face Szentlőrinc SE in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Soroksar a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Szentlőrinc SE 23%, so Soroksar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Soroksar and 0.8 for Szentlőrinc SE (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Soroksar are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 1.13 for Szentlőrinc SE. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Soroksar vs Szentlőrinc SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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