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BVSC vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

BVSC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Karcag SE

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-112.3%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.2%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 48.8% 2.05 -19.9%

Draw 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Away win 29.4% 29.4% 3.40 -0.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.6% 2.35 +0.3%

Over 3.5 20.6% 23.8% 4.20 -8.1%

BTTS 47.6% 52.4% 1.91 -9.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 43.1% 2.32 -29.0%

Away O1.5 22.7% 29.2% 3.42 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BVSC1.1

Karcag SE0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BVSC · PPG 1.20

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BVSC (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.9%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Karcag SE (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

BVSC face Karcag SE in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BVSC a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Karcag SE 29%, so BVSC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BVSC and 0.8 for Karcag SE (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BVSC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.06 for Karcag SE. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 1-4.

BVSC vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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