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Csakvar vs Kozarmisleny FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:30

Csakvar

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Kozarmisleny FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.6% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.5%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.4%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.3%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 44.4% 2.25 +20.2%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 22.4% 37.0% 2.70 -23.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 31.8% 3.14 +1.4%

BTTS 54.6% 59.2% 1.69 -7.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 44.6% 2.24 +24.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 39.8% 2.51 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -18.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Csakvar1.9

Kozarmisleny FC1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CSAKVAR · PPG 1.21

KOZARMISLENY FC · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Csakvar (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +20.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Kozarmisleny FC (A) 22.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Csakvar face Kozarmisleny FC in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Csakvar a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kozarmisleny FC 22%, so Csakvar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Csakvar and 1.1 for Kozarmisleny FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Csakvar are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.89 for Kozarmisleny FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Csakvar vs Kozarmisleny FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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