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Karcag SE vs Tiszakecske FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:30

Karcag SE

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tiszakecske FC

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.1%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.8%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

Draw 29.8% 31.3% 3.20 -2.8%

Away win 29.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.1% 2.08 -4.5%

Over 3.5 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

BTTS 49.2% 56.8% 1.76 -13.4%

Home O1.5 37.9% 39.4% 2.54 -3.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 40.8% 2.45 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -18.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karcag SE1.3

Tiszakecske FC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.40

TISZAKECSKE FC · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karcag SE (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +2.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.8%

Tiszakecske FC (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karcag SE face Tiszakecske FC in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karcag SE a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Tiszakecske FC 30%, so Karcag SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karcag SE and 1.1 for Tiszakecske FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karcag SE are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.22 for Tiszakecske FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Karcag SE vs Tiszakecske FC Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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