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Oldham vs Swindon Town Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Oldham

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Swindon Town

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 51.5% 1.94 -15.4%

Draw 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 29.2% 26.7% 3.75 +5.7%

Over 2.5 45.2% 52.6% 1.90 -14.1%

Over 3.5 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -5.0%

BTTS 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Home O1.5 38.0% 51.3% 1.95 -25.9%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.3% 3.00 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oldham1.4

Swindon Town1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OLDHAM · PPG 1.83

SWINDON TOWN · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oldham (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -15.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

Swindon Town (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldham face Swindon Town in England - League Two on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldham a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Swindon Town 29%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Oldham and 1.0 for Swindon Town (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldham are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.45 for Swindon Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Oldham vs Swindon Town Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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