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Salford City vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Salford City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Newport County

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 65.4% 1.53 -36.7%

Draw 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%

Away win 35.0% 16.9% 5.90 +106.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

BTTS 61.5% 58.8% 1.70 +4.5%

Home O1.5 47.2% 64.5% 1.55 -26.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 28.2% 3.55 +49.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salford City1.6

Newport County1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.50

NEWPORT COUNTY · PPG 0.93

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Salford City (H) 41.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -36.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.9%

Newport County (A) 35.0%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +106.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salford City face Newport County in England - League Two on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salford City a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Newport County 35%, so Salford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Salford City and 1.3 for Newport County (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salford City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.93 for Newport County. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Salford City vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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