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Salford City vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Salford City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chesterfield

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.2%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 50.0% 2.00 -19.2%

Draw 29.2% 29.9% 3.35 -1.3%

Away win 30.4% 27.4% 3.65 +11.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 27.0% 3.70 +2.4%

BTTS 52.4% 54.6% 1.83 -4.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Away O1.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.4%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salford City1.4

Chesterfield1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.80

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Salford City (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.3%

Chesterfield (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salford City face Chesterfield in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salford City a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Chesterfield 30%, so Salford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Salford City and 1.2 for Chesterfield (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salford City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.58 for Chesterfield. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Salford City vs Chesterfield Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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