Today / England - League Two / Chesterfield vs Gillingham

Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Chesterfield

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gillingham

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-19.2%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.7%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 64.9% 1.54 -28.4%

Draw 27.9% 25.6% 3.90 +5.3%

Away win 25.6% 16.7% 6.00 +32.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 52.4% 1.91 -14.4%

Over 3.5 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 39.6% 58.8% 1.70 -32.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesterfield1.4

Gillingham0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.36

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chesterfield (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -28.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.3%

Gillingham (A) 25.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Gillingham in England - League Two on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Gillingham 26%, so Chesterfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chesterfield and 0.9 for Gillingham (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.12 for Gillingham. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Chesterfield vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League Two Predictions