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Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Crawley Town

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bristol Rovers

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.9%1-111.8%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 30.3% 3.30 +36.3%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 34.8% 47.2% 2.12 -26.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 52.4% 1.91 +2.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

BTTS 58.9% 58.8% 1.70 +0.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 35.7% 2.80 +12.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crawley Town1.5

Bristol Rovers1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CRAWLEY TOWN · PPG 1.03

BRISTOL ROVERS · PPG 1.03

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Crawley Town (H) 41.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +36.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Bristol Rovers (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crawley Town face Bristol Rovers in England - League Two on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Bristol Rovers 35%, so Crawley Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Crawley Town and 1.3 for Bristol Rovers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crawley Town are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.03 for Bristol Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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