Today / England - League Two / Walsall vs Accrington ST

Walsall vs Accrington ST Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Walsall

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWD ·

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Accrington ST

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.5%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.4%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 52.6% 1.90 -5.8%

Draw 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Away win 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.9% 3.35 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walsall1.5

Accrington ST1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WALSALL · PPG 1.29

ACCRINGTON ST · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Walsall (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

Accrington ST (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walsall face Accrington ST in England - League Two on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walsall a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Accrington ST 24%, so Walsall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Walsall and 1.0 for Accrington ST (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walsall are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.93 for Accrington ST. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Walsall vs Accrington ST Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League Two Predictions