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Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Grimsby

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Fleetwood Town

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.4%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.3%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 52.6% 1.90 -24.2%

Draw 33.0% 29.0% 3.45 +13.9%

Away win 27.1% 25.6% 3.90 +3.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 50.0% 2.00 -13.8%

Over 3.5 20.7% 28.6% 3.50 -16.5%

BTTS 47.2% 56.5% 1.77 -16.5%

Home O1.5 37.0% 50.0% 2.00 -26.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 30.3% 3.30 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 40% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grimsby1.3

Fleetwood Town0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.86

FLEETWOOD TOWN · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grimsby (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.2%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.9%

Fleetwood Town (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grimsby face Fleetwood Town in England - League Two on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grimsby a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Fleetwood Town 27%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Grimsby and 0.9 for Fleetwood Town (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grimsby are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.60 for Fleetwood Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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