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Walsall vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Walsall

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Grimsby

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.9%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 37.9% 2.64 +8.0%

Draw 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

Away win 27.6% 38.5% 2.60 -16.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 27.5% 26.3% 3.80 +2.7%

BTTS 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 38.5% 2.60 -1.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.1%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walsall1.3

Grimsby1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WALSALL · PPG 1.34

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.55

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Walsall (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +8.0%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.4%

Grimsby (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walsall face Grimsby in England - League Two on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walsall a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Grimsby 28%, so Walsall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Walsall and 1.1 for Grimsby (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walsall are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.55 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Walsall vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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