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Shrewsbury vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Shrewsbury

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Salford City

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.6%0-25.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.7%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 26.0% 3.85 +47.8%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 34.9% 52.4% 1.91 -33.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 37.2% 30.3% 3.30 +22.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–0✓ 10.2%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shrewsbury1.3

Salford City1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHREWSBURY · PPG 1.21

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.26

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shrewsbury (H) 38.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +47.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Salford City (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury face Salford City in England - League Two on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Salford City 35%, so Shrewsbury are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shrewsbury and 1.2 for Salford City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shrewsbury are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.26 for Salford City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Shrewsbury vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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