Today / England - League Two / Crewe vs Walsall
Crewe vs Walsall Prediction— England - League Two
Crewe
PPG 1.90 · HOME
Walsall
PPG 1.79 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-010.2% 0-111.0% 0-25.9% 0-32.1% 0-4+0.7% 1 1-012.3% 1-113.2% 1-27.1% 1-32.6% 1-4+0.9% 2 2-07.4% 2-18.0% 2-24.3% 2-31.5% 2-4+0.5% 3 3-03.0% 3-13.2% 3-21.7% 3-30.6% 3-4+0.2% 4+ 4+-01.2% 4+-11.3% 4+-20.7% 4+-30.2% 4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 37.9% 44.2% 2.26 -14.3%
Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%
Away win 34.5% 33.3% 3.00 +3.5%
Over 2.5 44.5% 52.6% 1.90 -15.4%
Over 3.5 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%
BTTS 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%
Home O1.5 33.0% 46.5% 2.15 -29.0%
Away O1.5 32.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.3%
League track record ↗
Based on 61 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5 51%
BTTS 54%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -12.1%
Bet Hit 50%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 23% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-2 xG (home) 1.2 xG (away) 1.1 BTTS prob 49.9%
H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 13.2%
#2 1–0 12.3%
#3 0–0 10.2%
#4 0–1 11.0%
#5 2–1 8.0%
Form & verdict PPG
⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 3 matches · 2026 Crewe ▾ lower is better Walsall
Attack
9.0 Shots inside box
12.7 3.7 Shots outside box
3.3 26.3% Shooting accuracy
25.0% 20.0% Goals per shot on target
50.0% 1.73 xG for 1·1 of 3
3.45 Defence
4.3 Shots on target faced▾
4.7 0.00 Goals conceded▾
0.67 0.76 xG against▾ 1·1 of 3
1.77 Control
77.7% Pass accuracy
75.9% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Crewe face Walsall in England - League Two on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Walsall 35%, so Crewe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Crewe and 1.1 for Walsall (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.79 for Walsall. This match finished 2-2.
Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45
