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Accrington ST vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Accrington ST

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grimsby

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.4%0-26.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.8%1-112.7%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-17.8%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 27.4% 3.65 +30.3%

Draw 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Away win 38.1% 50.8% 1.97 -24.9%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

Away O1.5 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Accrington ST1.2

Grimsby1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ACCRINGTON ST · PPG 1.36

GRIMSBY · PPG 1.46

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Accrington ST (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +30.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Grimsby (A) 38.1%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Accrington ST face Grimsby in England - League Two on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Accrington ST a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Grimsby 38%, so Grimsby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Accrington ST and 1.3 for Grimsby (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Accrington ST are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.46 for Grimsby. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Accrington ST vs Grimsby Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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