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Fleetwood Town vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Fleetwood Town

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oldham

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.9%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.4%1-113.1%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-17.9%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.9% 37.6% 2.66 -4.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 33.1% 42.0% 2.38 -21.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood Town1.2

Oldham1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD TOWN · PPG 1.38

OLDHAM · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood Town (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Oldham (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood Town face Oldham in England - League Two on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood Town a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Oldham 36%, so Fleetwood Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fleetwood Town and 1.2 for Oldham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Oldham. This match finished 1-1.

Fleetwood Town vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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