Today / England - League One / Peterborough vs Stevenage

Peterborough vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Peterborough

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stevenage

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.1%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.1%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.9%3-14.6%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 39.7% 2.52 +13.7%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 30.5% 37.3% 2.68 -18.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.4% 3.40 +7.8%

BTTS 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 42.0% 2.38 -5.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough1.5

Stevenage1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.64

STEVENAGE · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +13.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Stevenage (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Stevenage in England - League One on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Stevenage 31%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Peterborough and 1.2 for Stevenage (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.19 for Stevenage. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Peterborough vs Stevenage Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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