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Stevenage vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Stevenage

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Doncaster

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.5%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Over 2.5 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.5% 2.30 -7.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stevenage1.5

Doncaster1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STEVENAGE · PPG 1.54

DONCASTER · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stevenage (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Doncaster (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stevenage face Doncaster in England - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stevenage a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Doncaster 26%, so Stevenage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stevenage and 1.0 for Doncaster (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stevenage are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.07 for Doncaster. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Stevenage vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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