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Stockport County vs Blackpool Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Stockport County

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Blackpool

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.7%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.8%1-110.6%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 63.7% 1.57 -16.5%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Away win 22.2% 17.5% 5.70 +15.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 49.4% 56.5% 1.77 -12.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 60.6% 1.65 -9.4%

Away O1.5 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.4%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockport County1.9

Blackpool0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKPORT COUNTY · PPG 1.77

BLACKPOOL · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stockport County (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Blackpool (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockport County face Blackpool in England - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockport County a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Blackpool 22%, so Stockport County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stockport County and 0.9 for Blackpool (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockport County are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.06 for Blackpool. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Stockport County vs Blackpool Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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