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Barnsley vs Blackpool Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Barnsley

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

UPCOMING

Blackpool

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.2%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.1%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 45.9% 2.18 -16.1%

Draw 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

Away win 35.5% 32.8% 3.05 +8.3%

Over 2.5 52.0% 57.8% 1.73 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 39.5% 51.3% 1.95 -23.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 41.7% 2.40 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnsley1.4

Blackpool1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.21

BLACKPOOL · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barnsley (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -16.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.6%

Blackpool (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnsley face Blackpool in England - League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnsley a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Blackpool 36%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barnsley and 1.2 for Blackpool (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnsley are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.39 for Blackpool.

Barnsley vs Blackpool Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions