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Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Burton Albion

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

UPCOMING

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 50.8% 1.97 -7.8%

Draw 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Away win 26.6% 26.3% 3.80 +0.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 48.8% 2.05 -18.2%

Away O1.5 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burton Albion1.5

AFC Wimbledon1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BURTON ALBION · PPG 1.36

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.03

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Burton Albion (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -7.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

AFC Wimbledon (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion face AFC Wimbledon in England - League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burton Albion a 47% chance, the draw 27% and AFC Wimbledon 27%, so Burton Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burton Albion and 1.0 for AFC Wimbledon (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burton Albion are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.03 for AFC Wimbledon. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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