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Leyton Orient vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Leyton Orient

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLW ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Barnsley

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.4%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.4%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 44.4% 2.25 +6.0%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 25.3% 34.0% 2.94 -15.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 49.5% 61.7% 1.62 -19.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leyton Orient1.5

Barnsley1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 1.17

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leyton Orient (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Barnsley (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leyton Orient face Barnsley in England - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leyton Orient a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Barnsley 25%, so Leyton Orient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leyton Orient and 1.0 for Barnsley (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leyton Orient are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.22 for Barnsley. This match finished 1-3.

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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