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Luton vs Stockport County Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Luton

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

Stockport County

PPG 1.74 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.5%0-24.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.4%1-19.4%1-28.2%1-34.8%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.6%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 45.9% 2.18 -18.9%

Draw 21.1% 27.8% 3.60 -14.4%

Away win 41.7% 32.8% 3.05 +27.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 59.9% 1.67 +14.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 37.0% 2.70 +21.5%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 51.8% 1.93 -3.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 42.0% 2.38 +14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luton1.7

Stockport County1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LUTON · PPG 1.67

STOCKPORT COUNTY · PPG 1.74

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Luton (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -18.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.4%

Stockport County (A) 41.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luton face Stockport County in England - League One on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luton a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Stockport County 42%, so Stockport County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Luton and 1.7 for Stockport County (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luton are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.74 for Stockport County. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.4%.

Luton vs Stockport County Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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